Cannot afford another misadventure by adversaries, have to build deterrence

Republic Day is the occasion when the top brass gives a status check on national security. This is followed by the Union Budget, hence, equally important is to carefully discern budgetary allocations on defence, to decipher if fiscal wizards are ready to really commit enough buck for the big bang.

There are increased apprehensions on this with frittering of resources on electoral freebies. Republic Day @75 is indeed also appropriate to take a long-term view on ‘Surakshit Bharat’ (a safe India), which is aprerequisite to Viksit Bharat 2047.

The Chinese probably sensed an opportunity in our preparation and infrastructure to launch the Ladakh offensive in 2020. Resilience and quid proquo response by our forces on Kailash heights in Sept 2020 and Tangse in Dec 2022 are hopeful signs.

The bottom line is that we cannot afford another misadventure by adversaries and should build requisite deterrence post-haste. The critical issues looming large on strategic scope include: will China now use cyber domain, technology/component denial and water wars to build new leverages? Second, will Pakistan retain its sting and relevance as an irritant? Third, can China and Pakistan open third front by using Bangladesh as a proxy?

These challenges have to be visualised in the evolving “Trump template”, characterised by unpredictability and transactional approach.

Army Day (Jan 15) pronouncements preceded by statements of CDS and the other service chiefs on Veterans Day (14 Jan) give the nation an overall reassurance on commitment and dedication of our forces. The Army chief was indeed pragmatic in his assessment ofthe recent thaw on the Line of Actual Control (LAC). He clearly debunked the unnecessary hype and injected much needed realism, that on ground, we need greater confidence building, reinforced by better protocols.

Despite attempts by sections of the media to play up differences between Army and MEA statements, the foreign minister has reiterated convergence. In sum, we need to maintain vigilance and force levels on LAC, de-induction is a long way off. Continued deployment has huge financial (in revenue) and human resource penalties. There would be a need to find additional funds for a capital account to fund enhanced capabilities and modernization.

Concurrently, troops would need to be rotated imaginatively as prolonged deployment of units at a high altitude is not possible. It is time CAPFs stepped forward and took up their role to free Army units from counter-insurgency deployment. The proposed rebalancing plan (RB-2.0) needs to be taken to conclusion. Chief ’s analysis of continued proxy war in J& K was that Pakistan is forced to rely on foreign terrorists in J&K, as local recruitment has reduced drastically.

This could pave the way for restoration of statehood and normalcy. His assessment of relations with Bangladesh and Myanmar was balanced, yet it leaves with few uneasy posers, especially for diplomats and politico-bureaucratic hierarchy.

On his part, the chief highlighted near normal relations with armies in Bangladesh and Myanmar.

Looking outward

Armed forces have an overriding presence in Pakistan, Myanmar and a significant one in Bangladesh. It will be appropriate to leverage Track-2 mechanisms, anchored on veterans (military and diplomats), to kick-start our dormant “Neighbourhood First” policy. Reducing Pakistan to irrelevance has had its benefits but it also breeds desperation. It may be better to consider selective and controlled engagement to obviate irrational forays.

Rapprochement with Taliban is smart realpolitik but it has attendant penalties of losing traditional friends in Northern Alliance and influence in Tajikistan. Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, who was at the forefront to keep India out of Af Quad, is now rooting for our inclusion.

India should adopt a strategic approach and attempt to maintain ties with all-Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras, even when Pashtuns are warming up to us. In sum, engaging with the Taliban is important, but expectations have to be pragmatic. First, Afghans have shifting loyalties, especially when China has first mover advantage; second, Chabahar corridor has limited pay-offs, largely in enhancing connectivity. Here too, China has built a bigger presence in port and through proposed rail-link. Hyper activity by Pakistan, especially ISI, in Bangladesh is their way to regain relevance and counter our recalibration in Afghanistan. The real challenge is to ba-lance our outreach in the north-west with vigilance and conflict-resolution in the north-east.

The air chief warmed the hearts of veterans with his simplicity and frank, but meaningful advice to hyperactive critics. His concerns about dwindling fighter inventory and delay in induction of Tejas are valid and timely. It will require greater persuasion to convince the USA to adhere to the agreed delivery schedule for F-404 engines for Tejas.

Even more complex will be securing co-operation on F-414 engines for Tejas Mark-2 and technology transfer for the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft programme.

Silver lining

The silver lining in atmanirbharta (self-reliance) was induction of three naval platforms (frigates and destroyers) and submarine. The other welcome developments in armament exports include agreements to supply Brahmos systems to Philippines and Indonesia. Deal for artillery guns and air-defence missiles to Armenia are again notable achievements. It is hoped momentum will be maintained by finding new partners. However, gas turbines for new surface platforms continue to be sourced from Ukraine. It is imperative to put together an empowered task-force for developing aero engines, marine and tank power-plants as a national mission. The CDS, in his statement, outlined progress on common doctrines, yet moving forward on theatre commands, NDU and reorganization of DRDO is long over-due.

The journey to Surakshit Bharat is arduous and full of challenges, but we have commitment and competence. It requires to be catalysed by enhanced budgetary allocations preferably as non-lapsing special allocation of 1% of GDP for transformation backed-up with time-bound follow-up. It will be an appropriate message for credible deterrence.

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