Congress’s 2026 dilemma: Who should it target in Bengal — BJP or Mamata Banerjee? | India News

“The river Ganga flows to Bengal via Bihar. And the victory in Bihar, like the river, has paved the way for our victory in Bengal,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared after the NDA’s thumping victory in recently-concluded Bihar elections. The message left little ambiguity: Bengal is BJP‘s next battlefied. Once a marginal player in the state, the BJP now views Bengal as a winnable frontier. Congress, meanwhile, delivered one of its weakest performances in Bihar, managing to win just six seats and inviting fresh questions about its relevance in key electoral battlegrounds.And that is where Bengal 2026 becomes a far more complicated puzzle for the party. With Mamata Banerjee dominating the state and the BJP rapidly expanding its footprint, the Congress now faces its most uncomfortable question yet: in 2026, who is its real opponent — Mamata, its INDIA bloc partner who leaves little room for it in Bengal, or the BJP, whose rise threatens to erase it altogether? Squeezed: Congress’s shrinking space between TMC and BJPThe extent of Congress’s continued decrease in relevance in Bengal becomes clear when you track its trajectory across the last three assembly elections. In 2011, when Mamata Banerjee first swept the Left out of power, Congress was still a meaningful partner in the coalition, winning 42 seats and retaining influence across Murshidabad, Malda and pockets of North Bengal.Five years later, in 2016, even though it fought in alliance with the Left, Congress’ seat count slightly increased to 44, but its vote share and organisational strength were already waning.By 2021, the floor gave way almost entirely. Congress contested 92 seats and managed to win just 2, finishing third or fourth in nearly every constituency and slipping to a 3% vote share—its weakest performance in Bengal’s electoral history. The party was wiped out in former strongholds like Malda Town and Sujapur, where the TMC and BJP split the anti-incumbency space between themselves.It is this collapse that now frames the 2026 dilemma. BJP’s riseThe BJP’s growth in Bengal has been one of the most dramatic political expansions of the last decade. In 2016, the party won only 3 seats.In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the party stunned many by bagging 18 out of 42 seats, a performance that immediately repositioned Bengal as the BJP’s most promising frontier outside the Hindi heartland.But by the time the 2021 assembly election arrived, the BJP had transformed itself into the state’s principal opposition, capturing 77 seats and securing nearly 38% of the vote share.This is what makes 2026 a high-stakes equation for the Congress. If the BJP continues its current trajectory, Congress risks being pushed out of the contest entirely.Mamata’s solo instinctAdding to the Congress’s dilemma is Mamata Banerjee’s consistent refusal to cede space or treat the party as an equal stakeholder in Bengal. Her political instinct has always been solo-first, and she has signalled that repeatedly, both through her words and her actions.In the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Mamata declared that the TMC would fight all 42 seats in Bengal alone, refusing to enter a seat-sharing arrangement with the Congress and stating that the INDIA bloc was “only for Delhi, not Bengal.”

Mamata Banerjee has also very openly expressed dissatisfaction with the functioning of the INDIA bloc in the past and signalled her intent to take charge of the alliance if given the opportunity. “What can I do if they cannot run the show? I do not lead the front. Those who are in leadership positions there should think about it. But still, I am maintaining my connections with the regional and national parties,” Mamata had said. “There are some who cannot tolerate me. If given the responsibility, though I do not want that, I can run it (INDIA bloc) from West Bengal. But I do not want to stay away from Bengal. I was born here and will die here,” the West Bengal chief minister had added.Earlier this year, Mamata Banerjee asserted that the Trinamool Congress will return to power with a two-thirds majority in the 2026 assembly elections in the state and ruled out the possibility of stitching any alliance with the Congress, according to the TMC’s mouthpiece. The mouthpiece ‘Jago Bangla’ reported that Banerjee made these remarks during a meeting of the TMC legislative party on Monday. According to that report, Banerjee told her legislators, “Trinamool will return to power with a two-thirds majority in 2026. We do not need anyone’s help. We will fight alone and win alone.”The seats where Congress once matteredBeyond vote share, Congress’s decline is most evident in regions it once dominated.In 2016, Congress was still a recognisable force in Bengal. It won 44 seats, many of them concentrated in Malda and Murshidabad — districts where TMC struggled to break through at the time. English Bazar, Chanchal, Sujapur, Beldanga, Kandi and Naoda were still Congress ground, with functioning booth networks and leaders voters identified with.But by 2021, that map collapsed almost overnight. Congress won zero seats in Malda and just two in Murshidabad, finishing third or fourth in most constituencies where it once competed. TMC filled the space rapidly. Meanwwhile, BJP simultaneously entered blocks that neither party controlled before.What was competitive turf in 2016 became abandoned land by 2021.2026 battle: A fight for space, or a fight for existence?All of this funnels into the question Bengal now forces on Congress: what does the party campaign for in 2026? Is it aiming for seats, vote share, or simply survival on the political map?Because the numbers leave little room to pretend otherwise.TMC already occupies the incumbent’s space, controls the welfare narrative, and shows no intention for alliance. The BJP, on the other hand, has managed to make significant inroads in Bengal and is buoyed by its victory in the recently-concluded elections in Bihar, Delhi, Maharashtra and Haryana. Congress enters 2026 without a clear leader, network, or defined opponent. The real question, then, may no longer be whether Congress should fight Mamata or the BJP. The question is whether the party has enough ground left to fight at all.